Bob attends a group activity. His Activity History shows he used to participate in somewhat similar activities when independent. His MDS Sec. F states that he thinks similar activities are “very important,” and his Care Plan shows that we would schedule activities related to this one and be sure to invite him. He decides to participate. Therefore, we can pat ourselves on the back that our data predicted his behavior successfully. CMS will see that our Activity Care Plan is on target and be happy with us. You, the Administrator, will be glad you can count on us to get it right.
But Nassim Taleb in his book, “The Black Swan,” would probably say we and CMS are all suffering from “retrospective distortion.” Taleb made a fortune by not following the predictions of his fellow Wall Street colleagues. He says that when we interpret something after the fact, we might think we understand it better than we actually do. In my own experience, if we don’t observe a resident actually doing an activity, we cannot predict whether they ever will, no matter what the History or MDS says. It’s much more random and unpredictable than people think.
I knew a resident once who never willingly left her bed. She stated that she was not interested in any activities other than watching her TV while lying down. Yet, by the time I left that job, she was choosing to attend group activities, proactively asking about what was coming up next so she could be in her wheelchair and ready. As an Activity Professional, I would like to take credit for this transformation. I did spend a fair amount of time with her, building relationship and all that good stuff. But, at the end of the day, I know it was kind of random. The right person with the right prompt on the right day at the right moment for the right activity that just happened to click the right way with the right follow-up, etc. Any of those things not being “right” and progress would probably have stopped dead in its tracks. Predictable? Hardly.
And that works both ways. Sometimes the History and the MDS show the resident should be interested in participating in something – but they don’t and won’t. Now, we’re the bad guys and must spend valuable time re-analyzing the situation and trying to justify the refusals or come up with a fix so CMS won’t tag us. And that’s assuming that a wary AP hasn’t learned to avoid the problem by hedging their Care Plans behind generalized objectives and approaches, ones that would be hard not to achieve.
So, where do we get the idea that we can predict behavior? We know that our values/choices change with location, emotional state, age, health, abilities, social groups, and many other factors. Hello. All of these things are majorly changing by the time someone moves into a SNF. So, any data we collect from them, especially in the first week, is not going to be reliable for predicting anything.
Taleb suggests we’re being delusional, like people with Parkinson’s, who when given additional dopamine sometimes see patterns in completely random data. He describes a fellow who sued his doctor because he developed a gambling addiction following the prescribed dopamine treatment. After all, he felt it led him to bet on numbers because he actually believed he saw reliable patterns in them. Taleb writes,
“Note that a “history” is just a series of numbers through time. The numbers can represent degrees of wealth, fitness, weight, anything … we are explanation-seeking animals who tend to think that everything has an identifiable cause and grab the most apparent one as the explanation.” (119)
At each facility where I’ve worked, there has been a core group of residents who could fairly reliably be trotted out for a fairly wide range of activities. They were reliable in the sense of boots-on-the-ground observation of behavior, not interviews. There are also some activities that tend to appeal to many folks in general. Musical entertainment and food come to mind. This information does not come from individual interviews, but from experience with people. In my ideal world, CMS would encourage us to spend more quality time with our residents instead of using that time pretending we and they know what’s going on in our residents’ individual decision-making processes. Why? Because person-centered (or person-directed) care should be more about spending quality time than generating unreliable data.
© Donna Stuart, ADC June 29, 2025
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan. New York: Random House.